Is your judgement better than the rest?
Do you have what it takes to make a living at any kind of trading or gambling? Very few people do in practice and the costs associated with whatever activity you choose generally outweigh the benefits however small those costs may be. It’s a bit like the Klondike gold rush of the late 19th century where, it is often said, the people who made the real money where those selling the picks and shovels.
The same can be said for a lot of gambling or trading which are tantamount to the same thing; the margins are the killer. It’s a bit like one of those old penny falls machines in amusement arcades where some cash is dribbling off the side each time – you have to overcome the costs. But many people do manage this and do so consistently – so it may be worth giving it a go.
In particular, if you can start out with some free cash then you should only have a little to lose and this enables you to experiment. With Unibet, for example, new members can pick up a £20 free bet. This enables you to try out your knowledge and judgement and wither sign off as an unfortunate loser or carry on steadily building up your overall pot if you can show to yourself that you have what it takes to do so.
The trick is to remember that whilst the value-based decisions may be the correct ones, the outcomes may still go against you. It’s a bit like getting better than even money on the flip of a coin. You’d always take that bet if you knew the coin was true and there was no trickery involved – but you wouldn’t win every toss. Even if you lost ten in a row, you’d still be foolish not to take the bet again an 11th time, and this would show that your judgement was still better than the market’s, which is what it’s all about.
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